Over the past couple of months, lots of news coverage has been devoted to covering the H1N1 ‘pandemic’. What exactly is a pandemic you ask? Well according to the World Health Organization, a disease reaches pandemic status if it satisfies the following conditions:

1. The microbe infects and causes serious illness in humans.
2. Humans do not have immunity against the virus.
3. The virus spreads easily from person-to-person and survives within humans.

Given that H1N1 has reached pandemic status, many countries have reacted swiftly to institute vaccination programs to protect their populace. Here in Canada, recent estimates are suggesting that our provincial and federal governments will spend in the neighborhood of $400 million for the H1N1 vaccine (that’s just the vaccine cost, not the amount they’ve spent publicizing this vaccination campaign). Clearly, our government sees being pro-active in vaccinating Canadians against H1N1 and the massive number of deaths this ‘pandemic’ will bring down upon us as a good thing.

Great philosophy in theory, but what are the numbers telling us? A couple of days ago I came across a story on Yahoo news, that discussed the safety of the H1N1 vaccine (original article accessible here: Top Doctors say few adverse reactions to H1N1 vaccine).

In the article, Canada’s chief public health officer, Dr. David Butler-Jones, attempts to dispel some vaccine myths by informing us there have ‘only’ been 36 severe negative reactions (anaphylactic shock/ convulsions/Guillain-Barre syndrome) to the H1N1 vaccine, out of the 6.5 million Canadians who’ve received it. A quick bit of math tells me this puts the odds of having a life-threatening reaction to the vaccine at a scant 0.00055%. Definitely encouraging news; I am happy knowing the odds of becoming severely incapacitated from a vaccine are only 0.00055%, a pretty low risk indeed.

But when I contrast this your odds of dying from H1N1… which to date run at 198 deaths out of a population of 35 millions (and trust me, we’ve all been exposed to the virus by now, unless you live in a bubble)… and the odds of dying from H1N1 come out to 0.00057%. Crap – this means that I’m as likely to suffer a potentially life-threatening reaction to the vaccine as I am to die from getting H1N1 in the first place.

Not only that but later on in this very same article, I learn that every year 4000-8000 Canadians die from seasonal flu related complications. Hmm… 200 vs. 8000 – that’s getting me thinking… why the hell did we just spend $400 million dollars on a RELATIVELY MILD strain of the flu???

Listen, I’m not for one second suggesting that getting the flu is fun? Nor am I an anti-vaccine nazi. But if I’m going to endorse a $400 million vaccination program, I want some legit data to show me my safety and health are dramatically improved with the vaccine vs. without it. But given that getting our H1N1 vaccine doesn’t seem to decrease my risk of suffering a severe complication, what exactly is the benefit from getting the vaccine anyway?

Not only that, but even strong proponents of the H1N1 vaccination readily admit that after getting the vaccine it’s quite possible I could suffer a ‘mild’ reaction which would involve: nausea, soreness, headache, fever… pretty much the exact symptoms I’d experience from the flu. Hmmm… am I missing something here… or is this flu vaccine really a case of ‘damned if you do, damned if you don’t’.

Call me a slave to rationale thought, but might the $400 million we just spent in tax dollars have been better served making sure people wash their hands, eliminate garbage foods from their diet and get some exercise?  Better yet, maybe we take another $400 million and should start vaccinating our health officials against the stupidity pandemic– because that’s a pandemic that seems to be raging out of control.

Agree or disagree? Let’s hear from you.

Related posts:

1. H1N1: Looking Back 1 Year Later
2. Flu shots: Efficacy and effects of the vaccine
3. An End To The Freshmen 15?